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Intelligent Value Alert Index

2016

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Sunday, November 20, 2016: Over the last two weeks, stocks logged very strong gains. The S&P 500 shot almost 100 points (4.63%) higher while the Russell 2000 small-cap index recorded an amazing run of 13.72% since November 3.

Was this rally the result of investor's enthusiasm over the election of Donald Trump to be the next president of the US, and most importantly, will the rally continue? How will we profit from the massive sector rotation now taking place? We answer those questions in the latest issue of the Intelligent Value Alert.

In this issue:

- Did President-Elect Trump Spark the Rally?
- But Has the Longest Bull Market Ever Become a "Big, Fat, Ugly Bubble?"
- Are Earnings Finally Turning Higher?
- A New Leg Up for the Bull Market?
- Our Plan for this Week

Read this newsletter!

Sunday, September 18, 2016: A new Value Alert newsletter is published, titled, "A Slump and a Potential Catalyst."

In this issue:

- A Slump After Setting All-Time Highs
- Second Most Expensive Market In History
- Potential Market Outcomes
- Reversion To The Mean
- Manipulative Propaganda
- A Major Market-Moving Event Next Week
- Our Plan for this Week

We believe that on Monday, September 26, a very important event will occur that may be a catalyst to move markets either higher or lower dramatically. You can read about this event in the Value Secrets Blog!


Monday, August 29, 2016: We have posted a Value Alert newsletter titled, "Value Portfolio Revisions: Combining Contrarian and Trend-Following Approaches."

This newsletter includes details and performance stats on the revision to our value-based portfolios that will allow us to purchase new undervalued stocks. this newsletter covers the following topics:

- The Contrarian Approach to Investing
- Value and Contrarian Investors: Joined at the Hip?
- The Trend-Following Approach to Investing
- Our Stock Selection Strategy
- 2008-2009: A Great Time to Buy!
- What About Value-Investing Opportunities Today?
- Revision to Our Value-Based Portfolios
- Our Plan for This Week

Please see the newsletter here.



Sunday, June 5, 2016:
We have posted a new Value Alert newsletter titled, "Jobs Report Spooks Market." It includes the following topics:

- Market Remains at a Critical Juncture
- May's Shocking Jobs Report
- Predictable Asset Classes Moving in Predictable Ways
- If Economic Troubles Intensify, Stocks Will Crash
- Industrial Production Declining Since 2014
- S&P 500 Trend Continues Higher
- Our Plan for this Week

Read this newsletter!


Sunday, May 30, 2016: We have posted a new Value Alert Newsletter titled, "Market at a Critical Juncture" It includes the following sections:

- Market at a Critical Juncture
- History of Range-Bound Markets
- Risk-Reward Favors the Bears
- Declining Earnings and Rising PE Ratio
- S&P 500 Sales Plummet
- Total Debt-To-Capitalization Ratio Danger
- Our Plan for this Week

Read this newsletter!


Sunday, May 22, 2016: The latest Value Alert Newsletter has been posted. This issue is titled, "Don't Play the Loser's Game!" It includes the following sections:

- Looking for a Trend
- Are We on 'The Wrong Side of the Trade?'
- Winner's Games and Loser's Games
- Why Investing Has Become a Loser's Game
- Our Plan for this Week

Read this newsletter!

 

Sunday, May 15, 2016: We have published a new Value Alert Newsletter. It appears that the bear-market rally from early February through early April has played out, and indices are now turning lower.

The Russell 2000 small-cap index and the Nasdaq 100 Index have both dropped below their 50-day moving averages, but the S&P 500 has yet to do so. Rather than take chances with inverse ETFs in a very unpredictable market, we will maintain a prudent policy and remain in cash.  We are not making purchases in our model portfolios at this time, and this newsletter explains the reasons why.

Tuesday, May 10, 2016: We have published a new Value Alert Newsletter titled, "THE FED AND HOW TO PROFIT FROM ITS MANIPULATION".

Over the weekend, we anticipated purchasing some positions that would produce profits if the overall market continued to decline as we expected. However, we first needed to see the broad indices drop, then identify the sectors/industries that were outperforming (dropping more than) the indices of which they are a part. From there we select the best positions, which can include inverse ETFs but also can include long positions in defensive sector ETFs (such as Consumer Durables in a down-trending market).

However, the broad market indices did not follow through with the script for a continuation of the downturn that started following the high on April 19. They stopped their slide (for now) at their 50-day moving average. Such is the nature of the market these days in which diverse assets such as stocks, bonds, and gold can all rise at the same time (when normally they would move inversely. It is a market that is at once confused and confusing.

In this week's Value Alert, we provide you with some suggestions for how to profit from this market. We hope you find it useful to clarify some of the bizarre occurances in a very strange market.

Read the May 10 Value Alert Newsletter here.


Monday, May 2, 2016:
A new Value Alert Newsletter titled "Will the Bear Market Resume?" is now available. It covers the following subjects:

Breakdown of the chart patterns in the:
- S&P 500 (Large-Cap) Index
- Russell 2000 (Small-Cap) Index
- Nasdaq 100 Index

In addition, we review the following data to explain what's currently most important to know for your success as investors:
- Skyrocketing PE Ratios
- Declining Revenues
- Record Corporate Debt Levels
- Our Plan For This Week

Read this newsletter!

– VIEW PRIOR ISSUES –

 


Sunday, April 24, 2016:
We have posted a new Value Alert newsletter titled, "Bull Rally Takes a Breather - What Now?" This newsletter covers the following subject matter:

- Bearish Series of Lower-Lows and Lower-Highs Stays Intact
- Here’s Why Stocks Have Shot Back Near Record Highs
- Study: Fed is Responsible For 93% of Market Returns Since 2008
- Additional Reasons Stocks Have Rallied
- Business Sales and Industrial Production Continue to Decline
- Leading Indicator Suggests Risk of Bear Market
- Real-Time GDP Tracker Points to Just 0.3% Growth in US
- Our Plan for this Week

Read this newsletter


Sunday, April 10, 2016:
A new Value Alert newsletter has been posted titled, "On the Precipice of a Selloff." This newsletter covers the following subject matter:

- Markets Flash Warning As Yields Drop
- Real U.S. Bond Rates Are Already Negative
- Real-Time 'GDPNow' Tracker Points to Just 0.1% Growth in US
- S&P 500 Momentum Breaks Down
- Our Plan for This Week

 


Sunday, April 3, 2016: We have posted a new Value Alert Newsletter titled, "Profits and Employment Disappoint." In this article, we disccuss the following topics:

- Small Company Profits Now Negative
- Manipulated Employment And Weak Labor Force Participation
- Our Plan for This Week


Sunday, March 27, 2016: We have posted a new Value Alert Newsletter titled, "Confirming the Bear Case." In this issue, we discuss the continuing decline in S&P 500 profits which appears to have taken an additional drop of -34% just since the end of 2015. We also review the salient technical charts that confirm to us that the bear market is intact following the Feb/March bear rally. We believe it's the synergy of applying both fundamental and technical analysis – not just one or the other – that has provided us with our exceptional portfolio returns since 2004.

Read this newsletter!


Sunday, March 20, 2016:
A new Value Alert newsletter, titled "Has the Bear-Market Morphed Into a Bull Market?" has been posted. This publication covers the following subjects:

- Don’t Be Fooled by a Bear-Market Rally in Stocks
- Market Cheerleaders Continue to Issue Bullish Forecasts
- Business Inventories Rise As Business Sales Plummet
- Fantasy Jobs Report Bolsters Bullish Consensus
- Velocity of Money Now Slower Than Depression Era
- Our Plan for This Week

Read this newsletter!


Sunday, March 13, 2016:
We have posted a new Value Alert newsletter titled, "Will Stocks Reverse Downward - Or Continue Higher?" It includes the following topics:

- S&P 500 Income Continues to Decline
- The Russell 2000's Unprofitable Company Problem
- The Big Picture Remains Stubbornly Bearish
- S&P 500 Trend Channels
- S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis
- Our Plan For This Week

Read this newsletter!

 

Sunday, March 6, 2016: We have posted a new Value Alert newsletter titled, "The Shortest Bear Market in History?" It includes the following topics:

- Investment Advisors: Bull Market Set To Resume!
- Does The Recent Rally Mean The Bear Market Is Over?
- Current Market Valuations Are Difficult To Comprehend
- More Signs of a Bear In Our Midst
- Another Look at Key Resistance Levels
- Our Plan For This Week

Read this newsletter


Sunday, February 28, 2016:
A new Value Alert Newsletter has been posted. In this issue, we look at the short-term, counter-trend bounce in the market and why investors should keep their eye on the primary trend, which remains downward.

This issue is titled, "Holding Steady in an Upturn" and we discuss:

- Reminder of Change in Portfolio Policy
- Higher Prices Possible Ahead
- Primary Trend Remains Downward
- Earnings Continue to Decline
- Our Plan For This Week

Read this publication.


Sunday, February 21, 2016: 
A new Value Alert newsletter has been posted to the site. This post addresses an important change we are making to our portfolios. The title and content of this newsletter are:

Focusing On Our Experienced Subscribers
- Selling When We Shouldn't
- IntelligentValue Was Early In Recognizing This Bear Market
- Downtrend Set to Resume?
- Inverse ETF Performance Through Volatile Downturns
- Portfolio Policy Change

Read the newsletter here.


Sunday, February 7, 2016: 
We have posted a new Value Alert newsletter with the subject, "Bear Market Set to Resume." In it, we cover the following subjects:

- Downtrend Continues After Two-Week Rally
- The Real, Unadjusted Jobs Numbers
- Our Approach For Profiting in This Environment
- "Leveraged ETFs are the Worst Investment Ever"
- The Critical Number For The Stock Market
- Our Plan For This Week

We have also added new positions to our Conservative and Aggressive Portfolios. See the Portfolio pages for details.


Sunday, January 3, 2016: 
We have posted a new Value Alert newsletter with Part 1 of a 2-part series titled, "How to Dramatically Improve Your Returns for 2016." This newsletter covers the following topics:

- 'Tis the Season to Make Guesses
- A Completely Different Approach to Investing
- The Benefits of Trend Following
- Avoiding Extrapolation Error
- Regression to the Mean
- S&P 500 Regression to Mean, 1871-Present
- Additional Data And Charts Signaling Reversion
- A Bullish Correlation With 2011?
- Big Difference That's Not Being Considered: Declining Earnings
- A Contrarian Take On Conventional Wisdom

 

– VIEW PRIOR ISSUES –