Almost an Unfair Advantage™

 


 

Intelligent Value Alert Index

2015

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Saturday, December 19, 2015:  We will not be publishing a Value Alert newsletter this weekend.

Paid subscribers to our Premium content should review the Intelligent Market Risk Analysis (IMRA) for details on the signals being sent by Technical Analysis. We will be purchasing three positions that we believe will profit handsomely in coming weeks and months. Paid subscribers should see the Portfolio pages for updates on Sunday evening. If you would like to see our picks and reasoning, please sign up for a free, 15-day trial.

We hope everyone has a safe and joyous holiday season! We will resume regular publication either Dec. 27 or Jan. 3.

Sunday, December 13, 2015:  We have published a new Intelligent Value Alert newsletter titled, "What's Coming Next: A Crash or a Rally?" This newsletter includes a review of some important economic indicators, what the yield curve is currently telling us, prospects for the first Fed interest rate increase in 80+ months, and what we are going to do to make money in this unusual market environment.

- Fed Announcement Forthcoming
- Our Financial Well-Being is at the Mercy of Inept Bureaucrats
- Raising Rates Into the Teeth of an Imminent Recession?
- Business Inventories-to-Sales Surge to Cycle Highs
- Manufacturing Report Disappoints
- The Incredibly Bearish Bull Market
- Yield Curve Would Be Deeply Inverted Under Normal Conditions
- Our Plan for This Week

Read the newsletter!

Sunday, December 6, 2015:  We found more concerning headwinds as the market moved in a volatile sideways path last week.

A new Value Alert Newsletter has been posted. This newsletter takes a look at the pattern of high volatility near market tops, the sky-high PE ratios that are accompanying declining corporate revenues and earnings, the historical pattern of the market following records set in IPOs, M&A activity, and insider sales of stock (all of which we have seen recently). We also take a look at the message that the high-yield corporate bond market is sending, and conclude with what may be the scariest chart you will ever see.


Sunday, November 22, 2015: A new Intelligent Value Alert newsletter titled, "10 Reasons Why We May Be On
The Verge Of Global Economic Disaster
" has been posted. Click the title to view the content.

In This Edition:
- Global Economic Meltdown?
- Citibank World Economic Report
- Baltic Dry Index Hits All-Time Low
- Has the Federal Reserve Manufactured Another Economic Crisis?
- Unintended Consequences of Fed's 'Wealth Effect' Policy
- US Business Sales And Employment Have Diverged
- Corporate Debt Inventories are Negative
- It Looks Like A Major Market Top is Forming
- S&P 500 Fibonacci Levels
- S&P 500 Momentum Indicators
- Portfolio Updates

Sunday, November 15, 2015: We have published a new Intelligent Value Alert Newsletter titled, "The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly" with the following content:

- The 'GOOD'
- A) Zweig Breadth Thrust is Historically Very Bullish
- B) Sector Performance Remains Bullish

- The 'BAD'
- A) Retail Stocks Are Collapsing
- B) Is The Market Rolling Over?
- C) New Index Highs With Declining Individual Stock Highs
- D) Advancing Vs Declining Issues

- The 'UGLY'
- A) Bets On Economic Growth Vs Contraction
- B) Declining Insider Buys

- Portfolio Changes


Sunday, November 8, 2015: We have published a new Value Alert newsletter with an analysis of what is occurring in the overall market, the likely effect of the very strong employment report last Friday, what the Fed may (or may not not) do in December regarding interest rates, and how this can affect our portfolios and positioning.

We also discuss what we believe is the very reckless approach of central banks across the world, led by the US Federal Reserve, in an attempt to manipulate the ebb-and-flow of capital creation and destruction that normally occurs in the economic process. In the course of this misled attempt to usurp the normal flow of economic ups and downs, these government bureaucrats are creating instead the largest amount of unsustainable debt in the history of world affairs, and quite possibly repeating an ever-increasing pattern of economic bubbles and destructive crashes.

Sunday, October 25: We have completed a new Intelligent Value Alert newsletter that includes some exciting news about changes to the composition of our portfolios.

We will now be including ETFs in our portfolios and do not anticipate having to sit on the sidelines (as we have for the last few months) in the future.

While not abandoning our value-based stock selection when those opportunities are available, adding ETFs to the selections will allow us to provide instant diversification, reduce transactions and dramatically increase low-risk returns! Read all the details about the why's, how's, and what's of this significant improvement in the October 25 Intelligent Value Alert newsletter.


Sunday, October 11:
 
We had planned to add new stocks to our portfolios this weekend in anticipation of a continuing rally. We were also anticipating that the indicators we monitor would continue in a positive direction. However, after reviewing the stocks selected by our value-based fundamental criteria this weekend, we found very few companies that passed a second qualitative examination.

For this reason, we took further steps to re-analyze the market in more depth and came away with the conclusion that stocks are just as likely to head back downward as they are to continuing last week's rally. Please see the October 11 Intelligent Value Alert newsletter for details. 

Therefore, at this time we will hold off on adding new positions to our portfolios until our indicators give us a green light. This rules-based system for determining market exposure, while frustrating to many who want to be 'in the action' at all times, is the most prudent course for maximizing annual returns over the long run.

Sunday, October 4:  We have published a brief Intelligent Value Alert newsletter titled, "The Primordial Beginnings of a Rally?"

In this issue we cover the following topics:
- Overall Market Valuation
- What Caused The Market To Bounce?
- Advisors Sentiment Survey
- Our Plan


Sunday, September 27:
 
We have posted a new Intelligent Value Alert newsletter titled, "Look Out Below?" In this issue we cover the following topics:

- Timing Method With 100% Winners over 55 Years Says Bear Market Has Begun
- Weekly Indicators Sitting On the Fence: Bull or Bear Market Ahead?
- Headwinds For The Market
- Our Plan to Profit

 

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Sunday, September 20: We have published a new Intelligent Value Alert newsletter that addresses the market situation following the Federal Reserve's inaction on interest rates last week. In this Alert, we discuss the following subjects:

- Retest Of Correction Lows, Maybe More
- Has the Fed Assumed a Third Mandate?
- Why the Fed Is Trapped
- How Can We Profit From This Market?

Tuesday, September 15: We have completed our work on the 3rd and final section of our newsletter titled, "Where is the Market Headed From Here?" This article covers the risks and opportunities with which we are currently presented and also goes into some detail regarding our strategy for the bifurcated outcomes.

- The Global Tug-Of-War Between Established Economies and Emerging Markets
- Steady Growth and Low Unemployment Justifies a US Interest Rate Increase
- Emerging Market Economies Are in Dire Straits
- Reasons Why There May Be No Recession
- Positives in the Market
- The Bottom Line
- What's the IntelligentValue Strategy?

It is a bit lengthy, so pull up a chair. When you are finished, please let us know what you think of the work.

Tuesday, September 1: We have published Part 2 of our series,  "Where is the Market Headed From Here?"

In this part we cover the following topics:
- Global Debt About to Crash the World Economy?
- Will China Be the Source of the Next Downturn?
- Anemic US Economic Growth

- 23 Nations Around The World Where Stock Market Crashes Are Already Happening

Part 3 will be published as soon as possible.

Monday, August 24: We have posted Part 1 of a new Intelligent Value Alert newsletter titled, "Where is the Market Headed From Here?" Part 1 is the introduction to the series that will be published over the next few weeks.

This section will cover the selloff that began on August 20, its causes, the record-setting volatility, the most volatile day in stock market history, what we expect going forward, and how we will profit in coming months from the opportunities this 'crisis' presents.

Sunday, August 9:  From time-to-time, value significantly underperforms growth and/or the overall market. The most prominent of these periods in recent memory was the internet bubble in the late 1990s. However, we are ostensibly experiencing another of these periods now.

Since March 2014, growth stocks have beaten the pants off Value stocks. Read this Value Alert newsletter titled, Growth Investing versus Value Investing, to learn the history of these occurrences and what we are going to do to adapt to these conditions going forward.

Sunday, August 2: We have published a new Value Alert Newsletter with details on the roller coaster ride that Aspen Insurance Holdings (AHL) went through last week based on earnings disappointment. See the latest Value Alert here.


Sunday, June 28: We completed a new Intelligent Value Alert newsletter titled, Big Change In the Market Coming This Week. We analyze what market volatility, Bollinger Bandwidth, 9 market sectors and the business cycle are telling us about the coming direction of market. Conclusion: This could be serious!


Wednesday, June 24:
We have completed the publication of an important new Intelligent Value Alert Newsletter that addresses the current technical aspects of the market in detail. We cover the following subjects:

- How to Think about Market Prices
- Are Stock Prices Random?
- Not Random At All
- Identifying Points Of Likely Upturn And Downturn
- How To Profit From The Signals
- Why Are Value Stocks Struggling?
- Where Are Stocks Headed Now?


Sunday June 7:
We conducted an analysis of six core investing approaches to determine if there were any possible ways we might tweak our value-based portfolios to produce better returns. We think this week's Intelligent Value Alert Newsletter will explain why we will stay with the status quo.


Monday May 25: We have published a new Intelligent Value Alert Newsletter titled, 'What's The Problem With 'Deep Value?', in which we examine the reason for the recent underperformance of the DEEP VALUE Portfolio and our expectations for the near future. View the VALUE ALERT here.


Sunday May 10: We have posted a new Intelligent Value Alert Newsletter in which we discuss 1) Changes to our Stock Selection regime, 2) a Perfectly Timed Selection, and ask the question, 3) Are You Patient Enough to be a Successful Investor?


Sunday April 5: We have published a new Intelligent Value Alert Newsletter which summarizes the revisions made to our DEEP VALUE Portfolio to adapt it to the current mature market environment.


Sunday February 22: We have also published a new Intelligent Value Alert Newsletter with details of our efforts and success in revising the portfolio stock-selection systems.


Sunday January 25: We have published a new Value Alert Editorial that seeks to answer the question, "Are there any undervalued opportunities in the oil patch?"  This article also includes an analysis of our recent investment in Valero Energy Corp (VLO).

 

Sunday January 18:  We have published a new Value Alert with a review of our performance in 2014, as well as an assessment of the current state of the equity market and the economy as we enter 2015.


Sunday January 4:  Don't forget to check out our Value Secrets Blog.  Read "22 Biases That Will Cause You To Lose Money When Investing" and see how many apply to you.  We are working on a detailed article about how our human nature sabotages our investing results, and how quantitative value investing solves that problem. 

 

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