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Saturday, December 19, 2015: We will not be publishing a Value Alert newsletter this weekend.
Paid subscribers to our Premium content should review the Intelligent Market Risk Analysis (IMRA) for details on the signals being sent by Technical Analysis. We will be purchasing three positions that we believe will profit handsomely in coming weeks and months. Paid subscribers should see the Portfolio pages for updates on Sunday evening. If you would like to see our picks and reasoning, please sign up for a free, 15-day trial.
We hope everyone has a safe and joyous holiday season! We will resume regular publication either Dec. 27 or Jan. 3.
Sunday, December 13, 2015: We have published a new Intelligent Value Alert newsletter titled, "What's Coming Next: A Crash or a Rally?" This newsletter includes a review of some important economic indicators, what the yield curve is currently telling us, prospects for the first Fed interest rate increase in 80+ months, and what we are going to do to make money in this unusual market environment.
- Fed Announcement Forthcoming
Sunday, December 6, 2015: We found more concerning headwinds as the market moved in a volatile sideways path last week.
A new Value Alert Newsletter has been posted. This newsletter takes a look at the pattern of high volatility near market tops, the sky-high PE ratios that are accompanying declining corporate revenues and earnings, the historical pattern of the market following records set in IPOs, M&A activity, and insider sales of stock (all of which we have seen recently). We also take a look at the message that the high-yield corporate bond market is sending, and conclude with what may be the scariest chart you will ever see.
In This Edition:
Sunday, November 15, 2015: We have published a new Intelligent Value Alert Newsletter titled, "The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly" with the following content:
- The 'UGLY'
- Portfolio Changes
Sunday, November 8, 2015: We have published a new Value Alert newsletter with an analysis of what is occurring in the overall market, the likely effect of the very strong employment report last Friday, what the Fed may (or may not not) do in December regarding interest rates, and how this can affect our portfolios and positioning.
We also discuss what we believe is the very reckless approach of central banks across the world, led by the US Federal Reserve, in an attempt to manipulate the ebb-and-flow of capital creation and destruction that normally occurs in the economic process. In the course of this misled attempt to usurp the normal flow of economic ups and downs, these government bureaucrats are creating instead the largest amount of unsustainable debt in the history of world affairs, and quite possibly repeating an ever-increasing pattern of economic bubbles and destructive crashes.
Sunday, October 25: We have completed a new Intelligent Value Alert newsletter that includes some exciting news about changes to the composition of our portfolios.
We will now be including ETFs in our portfolios and do not anticipate having to sit on the sidelines (as we have for the last few months) in the future.
While not abandoning our value-based stock selection when those opportunities are available, adding ETFs to the selections will allow us to provide instant diversification, reduce transactions and dramatically increase low-risk returns! Read all the details about the why's, how's, and what's of this significant improvement in the October 25 Intelligent Value Alert newsletter.
For this reason, we took further steps to re-analyze the market in more depth and came away with the conclusion that stocks are just as likely to head back downward as they are to continuing last week's rally. Please see the October 11 Intelligent Value Alert newsletter for details.
Therefore, at this time we will hold off on adding new positions to our portfolios until our indicators give us a green light. This rules-based system for determining market exposure, while frustrating to many who want to be 'in the action' at all times, is the most prudent course for maximizing annual returns over the long run.
Sunday, October 4: We have published a brief Intelligent Value Alert newsletter titled, "The Primordial Beginnings of a Rally?"
In this issue we cover the following topics:
Sunday, September 27: We have posted a new Intelligent Value Alert newsletter titled, "Look Out Below?" In this issue we cover the following topics:
Sunday, September 20: We have published a new Intelligent Value Alert newsletter that addresses the market situation following the Federal Reserve's inaction on interest rates last week. In this Alert, we discuss the following subjects:
- Retest Of Correction Lows, Maybe More
Tuesday, September 15: We have completed our work on the 3rd and final section of our newsletter titled, "Where is the Market Headed From Here?" This article covers the risks and opportunities with which we are currently presented and also goes into some detail regarding our strategy for the bifurcated outcomes.
- The Global Tug-Of-War Between Established Economies and Emerging Markets
It is a bit lengthy, so pull up a chair. When you are finished, please let us know what you think of the work.
Tuesday, September 1: We have published Part 2 of our series, "Where is the Market Headed From Here?"
In this part we cover the following topics:
Part 3 will be published as soon as possible.
Monday, August 24: We have posted Part 1 of a new Intelligent Value Alert newsletter titled, "Where is the Market Headed From Here?" Part 1 is the introduction to the series that will be published over the next few weeks.
This section will cover the selloff that began on August 20, its causes, the record-setting volatility, the most volatile day in stock market history, what we expect going forward, and how we will profit in coming months from the opportunities this 'crisis' presents.
Sunday, August 9: From time-to-time, value significantly underperforms growth and/or the overall market. The most prominent of these periods in recent memory was the internet bubble in the late 1990s. However, we are ostensibly experiencing another of these periods now.
Since March 2014, growth stocks have beaten the pants off Value stocks. Read this Value Alert newsletter titled, Growth Investing versus Value Investing, to learn the history of these occurrences and what we are going to do to adapt to these conditions going forward.
Sunday, August 2: We have published a new Value Alert Newsletter with details on the roller coaster ride that Aspen Insurance Holdings (AHL) went through last week based on earnings disappointment. See the latest Value Alert here.
- How to Think about Market Prices
Monday May 25: We have published a new Intelligent Value Alert Newsletter titled, 'What's The Problem With 'Deep Value?', in which we examine the reason for the recent underperformance of the DEEP VALUE Portfolio and our expectations for the near future. View the VALUE ALERT here.
Sunday May 10: We have posted a new Intelligent Value Alert Newsletter in which we discuss 1) Changes to our Stock Selection regime, 2) a Perfectly Timed Selection, and ask the question, 3) Are You Patient Enough to be a Successful Investor?
Sunday February 22: We have also published a new Intelligent Value Alert Newsletter with details of our efforts and success in revising the portfolio stock-selection systems.
Sunday January 25: We have published a new Value Alert Editorial that seeks to answer the question, "Are there any undervalued opportunities in the oil patch?" This article also includes an analysis of our recent investment in Valero Energy Corp (VLO).
Sunday January 18: We have published a new Value Alert with a review of our performance in 2014, as well as an assessment of the current state of the equity market and the economy as we enter 2015.
Sunday January 4: Don't forget to check out our Value Secrets Blog. Read "22 Biases That Will Cause You To Lose Money When Investing" and see how many apply to you. We are working on a detailed article about how our human nature sabotages our investing results, and how quantitative value investing solves that problem.